Soapbox Snippets May 2024


Soapbox Snippets May 2024

In this month’s Soapbox Snippets, we round up some of the latest sustainable investing insights and developments.

 

Critical Commodities at Risk: PwC Report Highlights Drought Vulnerability for Minerals and Crops by 2050

70% of Critical Minerals may Face High Drought Vulnerability by 2050


A report from PwC has found that, in a scenario of high carbon emissions, over 70% of critical minerals face a substantial or increased risk of drought vulnerability by 2050.

The research analysed nine commodities across: critical minerals—copper, cobalt, and lithium; key crops—wheat, rice, and maize; and vital metals—such as zinc, iron, and aluminium. For many of these key commodities, production is heavily concentrated in a few countries, which are grappling with escalating climate risks.

“For each commodity, at least 40% of its global supply is produced from a distinct set of no more than three countries. Concentration is particularly pronounced for lithium, cobalt, iron, and bauxite, with more than 70% of global supplies sourced from no more than three countries per commodity. Within countries, production is concentrated even further.”

By 2050, PwC's research indicates that a vast majority of the world's rice production (87%), over 70% of the materials essential for battery production, such as cobalt and lithium, and around 60% of key industrial minerals like bauxite and iron, are expected to remain at risk. Rice, maize, and wheat, which represent 42% of the world's caloric intake, are becoming endangered by heat stress and drought, with rice potentially being the most susceptible in a high emissions scenario due to significant heat stress.

Commodities at risk

Low emissions scenario, Year 2050

snippet May 2024 chart 1.png

Source: PWC 'Climate risks to nine key commodities' report.

Drought risk is also increasing sharply for key crops. At our present-day baseline, less than 1% of maize and wheat face significant or greater drought risk. This figure is projected to rise to over 30% for maize and over 50% for wheat in a 2050 high emissions scenario.

These concerning and urgent scenarios highlight the critical need for investment in businesses dedicated to reinforcing climate resilience, or ones that allow us to adapt to our everchanging climate.

 

New US Transmission Line Development Rules Introduced

The US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission passed what many are touting as the most significant energy regulatory milestone for decades. The new Order 1920 requires transmissions providers to:

  • Engage in proactive, forward-looking regional planning on a 5-year basis.
  • Evaluate a minimum set of transmission benefits during cost allocation processes, including economic and reliability benefits.
  • Consider the use of advanced transmission technologies.

While this seems like a rather boring list of requirements taken at face value, these set out a framework for transmission networks to move from being the barriers to renewables connections that they are today, to being enablers of the net zero transitions.

The US (and the UK, EU, etc) has so far lacked a proactive, long-term strategy for transmission planning to support the requirements of a net zero energy system. President Joe Biden's administration has a goal of a carbon-free power sector by 2035, but to meet this, the country needs to more than double regional transmission capacity and expand interregional transmission capacity more than fivefold, according to a U.S. Department of Energy study published in November.

The rule, as initially proposed, would force states, regional transmission organizations and utilities to work together on 20-year plans for approving new transmission projects.


It would also likely require planners to establish a clear process for how transmission lines are selected and paid for by consumers across states.

 

Climate Change and Its Impact on Brain Health

University College London researchers have found that conditions related to the human brain like strokes, MS, dementia, epilepsy, and depression could spread and worsen in severity because of extreme temperatures, both high and low, from climate change.


It seems like the temperatures at night are the key, as poor sleep is a known aggravator of brain conditions. They found that environmental factors not only affect the prevalence of disease but can heighten the associated risk of hospital admission, disability and even death.

 

Microsoft’s Indirect Emissions Increase Significantly

Following Microsoft’s earnings, they released their annual Sustainability Report this month and their progress to reach net zero emissions by 2030. Their target is to half emissions from all scopes by 2030, which is very ambitious. 

 

The company’s recent environmental performance has seen mixed results. While they have made progress in reducing direct operational emissions (Scope 1 and 2) by 6% from their 2020 baseline, their indirect emissions (Scope 3) increased significantly by 30%.

 

The primary reason for the sharp rise in Scope 3 emissions is the construction of more data centres to support their growing AI-heavy cloud computing business. The embodied carbon from building materials like concrete and steel, as well as hardware components like semiconductors, servers and racks used in these new data centres, has driven up their scope 3 emissions substantially.

 

As a result, Microsoft’s overall emissions across all scopes (1, 2 and 3) are up 29% from their 2020 baseline. It highlights the challenge in balancing the need for more data centre infrastructure and the knock-on effects for energy usage and emissions.

 

Microsoft acknowledges that addressing their Scope 3 emissions is a key challenge, and they are focusing on greener materials, renewable energy adoption, carbon removal, and working with their supply chain partnerships to improve their emissions.

Important Information

More about the authors

Aegon AM Responsible Investment Specialists


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