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Aegon Asset Management Investment Company (Ireland) Plc is structured as an umbrella type open-ended investment company with variable capital consisting of a number of different sub-funds (“Funds”) and is authorized in Ireland pursuant to European Communities (Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities) UCITS Regulations and the Central Bank UCITS Regulations (“UCITS Regulations"). Aegon Asset Management Europe ICAV is structured as an umbrella type open-ended investment ICAV with variable capital consisting of Funds and is authorized in Ireland as a UCITS pursuant to the UCITS Regulations.
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A year ago I wrote about sustainable real estate, commenting that ‘the greenest building is the one never built’. While still true, if additional space is really required and alternatives are lacking, retrofit followed by new build remain the next best options, especially for regions with strong population growth, such as emerging markets.
A lot of attention is rightly given to the construction phase of real estate, given its impact on global greenhouse gas (GHG) pathway commitments. Of the sector’s 40% share of global GHG emissions, around one-third comes from building and infrastructure materials and construction1, with this share expected to increase strongly in both relative and absolute terms.
Despite efficiency gains, the absolute GHG footprint of the sector is still increasing. From 2015 to 2021 global gross floor area increased from 218 billion to 242 billion square metres, an increase of more than 10%. However, improvements in the environmental efficiency of buildings lagged, and overall operational emissions from building operations are up 2% from the previous peak in 20193. Even if operational performance improves meaningfully, real estate volume growth still results in bulky upfront environmental costs from the construction phase.
The most important factor in this is embodied carbon, which refers to the carbon emissions associated with the production, transportation, and disposal of building materials, equipment, and other products over their entire life cycle. This includes the extraction, processing, manufacturing and end-of-life disposal or recycling.
It has been estimated that upfront embodied carbon will account for around 50% of build environment emissions by 2035, as operational (in-use) emissions from buildings decrease4. But this is not only relative growth, as the new buildings needed to host global population growth by 2060 will emit an estimated 100 gigaton of embodied carbon5. This has led to a shift in focus from the operational efficiency of buildings to a total lifecycle approach. Unfortunately, trustworthy company level data on embodied carbon is lacking worldwide, with measurement methodologies still being rolled out.
This has not stopped policy, certification, benchmark, and legislation from being implemented in the sector, including:
The UNFCCC-MPGCA Human Settlement Pathway which states that by 2030, 100% of new buildings must be net-zero carbon in operation, and embodied carbon must be reduced by at least 40%, as well as a target of 100% net-zero across the whole lifecycle for all new and existing assets by 2050, at the latest.
Breaam and LEED recognise embodied carbon measurement and mitigation in their analysis.
SBTi (Science Based Target initiative) has substantially increased lifecycle items in its target setting for the sector.
Five EU countries (Denmark, Finland, France, the Netherlands and Sweden) have introduced regulation on whole-life carbon emissions, including embodied emissions.
Lastly the revision of the EU’s Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) refers to whole lifecycle and could lift embodied carbon up on a European scale.
The broadened whole-life approach would be applied for new build as well as for renovation projects. A renovation targeting operational efficiencies alone would no longer suffice. A company would need to manage carbon from planning, operation, and demolition to gain the desired certification rate, planning approval or investor interest. Likewise, investors would need to be able to explain how they integrate lifecycle analysis in their investment decisions. We expect not all investee companies might be able to keep up, with leaders gaining a competitive advantage within the sector.
The whole lifecycle footprint of a building thereby needs to remain front and centre in a listed real estate investment strategy. Alignment of investment portfolios with leading companies as well as engagement on whole-life carbon benefits responsible investment objectives and financial performance, as leading companies are positioned to become the consolidators in the sector.
We use third-party data, although mainly rely on a proprietary bottom-up qualitative approach, which helps to differentiate between ‘leaders’, ‘improvers’ and ‘laggards’, where quality data (including on embodied carbon) is not always fully available or sufficiently comparable.
The bottom-up approach also provides insights in best practices and helps identify potential gaps sector-wide or at individual company level, where engagement could play a role. It also helps to identify leaders in fast-growing developing economies, where data is light and construction materials are set to dominate resource consumption, with associated greenhouse gas emissions expected to double by 20606.
The listed real estate sector (equity plus debt) represents roughly an estimated 11-14% of institutional quality real estate worldwide7 and is therefore positioned to play an important role to address the sector’s heavy GHG footprint. We believe the requirement of a comprehensive full lifecycle approach has only just begun. Investors would need to make sure to identify best practices early and, given its importance, make sure emerging markets does not become a blind spot.
This material is provided by Aegon Asset Management (Aegon AM) as general information and is intended exclusively for institutional and wholesale investors, as well as professional clients (as defined by local laws and regulation) and other Aegon AM stakeholders.
This document is for informational purposes only in connection with the marketing and advertising of products and services, and is not investment research, advice or a recommendation. It shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation to buy any investment nor shall any offer of products or services be made to any person in any jurisdiction where unlawful or unauthorized. Any opinions, estimates, or forecasts expressed are the current views of the author(s) at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. The research taken into account in this document may or may not have been used for or be consistent with all Aegon AM investment strategies. References to securities, asset classes and financial markets are included for illustrative purposes only and should not be relied upon to assist or inform the making of any investment decisions. It has not been prepared in accordance with any legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and may have been acted upon by Aegon AM and Aegon AM staff for their own purposes.
The information contained in this material does not take into account any investor's investment objectives, particular needs, or financial situation. It should not be considered a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such. Nothing in this material constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to any particular investor. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the recipient. Investors should consult their investment professional prior to making an investment decision. Aegon Asset Management is under no obligation, expressed or implied, to update the information contained herein. Neither Aegon Asset Management nor any of its affiliated entities are undertaking to provide impartial investment advice or give advice in a fiduciary capacity forpurposes of any applicable US federal or state law or regulation. By receiving this communication, you agree with the intended purpose described above.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance. All investments contain risk and may lose value. This document contains "forward-looking statements" which are based on Aegon AM's beliefs, as well as on a number of assumptions concerning future events, based on information currently available. These statements involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions which are difficult to predict. Consequently, such statements cannot be guarantees of future performance, and actual outcomes and returns may differ materially from statements set forth herein.
The following Aegon affiliates are collectively referred to herein as Aegon Asset Management: Aegon USA Investment Management, LLC (Aegon AM US), Aegon USA Realty Advisors, LLC (Aegon RA), Aegon Asset Management UK plc (Aegon AM UK), and Aegon Investment Management B.V. (Aegon AM NL).Each of these Aegon Asset Management entities is a wholly owned subsidiary of Aegon N.V. In addition, Aegon Private Fund Management (Shanghai) Co., a partially owned affiliate, may also conduct certain business activities under the Aegon Asset Management brand.
Aegon AM UK is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 144267) and is additionally a registered investment adviser with the United States (US) Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Aegon AM US and Aegon RA are both US SEC registered investment advisers.