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Education-tech as an investment theme experienced a lot of interest during the Covid-19 lockdowns. However, since we have returned to some form of normality, the sector has faced a tough environment.
But what if we look at the longer-term tailwinds?
The Wall Street Journal reported that 56% of Americans think that earning a four-year degree is a bad bet. Levels of debt now appear unsustainable, and the student debt relief programme Biden has been trying to push through was ruled unconstitutional last Friday.
Source: Jefferies/Education Data (2021)
Furthermore, across the same timeframe used in the chart, undergraduate enrolment has dropped 15% - and not all because of Covid-19, about 60% of that decline occurred pre-pandemic.
Instead, they’re turning to more niche education/upskilling programmes. It’s not just at college age, a survey from Jefferies of full-time office workers found that 82% of those who think AI might impact their current role, would consider upskilling platforms like Coursera or Udemy.
And it's also something corporates are looking at more, US training expenditures passed the $100 billion mark for the first time in 2021-22.
Cold reception for the UK’s heat pump scheme
The UK’s scheme to upgrade household boilers to heat pumps has underperformed in its first year. Aiming to give out 30,000 grants of £5,000 per year in England and Wales, the Boiler Upgrade Scheme managed just half of the target in its first year. In the UK, household heating accounts for 14% of emissions.
Heat pumps are touted as the primary technology to decarbonise global heating requirements. According to the IEA’s Net Zero 2050 pathway, heat pumps are estimated to contribute 500 mega-tons of CO2 emissions savings by 2030.
High costs of heat pump units, low availability of trained installers, and a lack of efficiency measures like insulation in homes are cited by the UK’s Climate Change Commission as reasons for poor take-up. Heat pumps can cost upwards of £10,000 in the UK, even after the grant is taken into account.
The European Heat Pump Associate highlights 55,100 heat pumps were sold in the UK in 2022 – the Government aims to install 600,000 a year within the next five years.
ISSB
Any regular reader of these articles will know how much the Responsible Investment Industry loves an acronym – ISSB is one of the many and it stands for the International Sustainability Standards Board. Who (to much fanfare) released the first two IFRS (another acronym: International Financial Reporting Standards) Sustainability Disclosure Standards; IFRS S1 General Requirements for Disclosure of Sustainability-related Financial Information and IFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures.
This really is a new era of sustainability-related disclosures in capital markets worldwide providing a level playing field globally in disclosures. In particular, it will create a common language in terms of the effects of climate related risks and opportunities on the company's future prospects.
The hope is also that this has the impact of improving confidence in disclosures, enabling comparability of companies, and helping inform investment decisions. And for the first time, the Standards create a common language for disclosing the effect of climate-related risks and opportunities on a company’s prospects.
These now need to be adopted by corporates. It is not mandatory in most countries, however, there have been commitments to adopt this at national level across the globe.
At a basic level, the aim of these standards is not only to be interoperable with other accounting requirements, but to introduce the proportionality of ESG risks and require the disclosure of absolute Scope 1, 2 & 3 emissions. They will be effective for annual reporting periods beginning after 1 Jan 2024.
World Energy Investment
Spending on solar power investment is set to exceed investment in oil production for the first time this year, according to the IEAs World Energy Investment 2023 report.
Investment in clean energy has increased steadily since 2020, driven by enhanced policy support, a rebound in economic growth post-pandemic and energy security concerns. In total, clean energy spending is expected to reach $1.7 trillion in 2023 around 1.7x higher than fossil fuel energy spending and up from 1x five years ago.
Whilst this is welcome news, the report also highlights that this investment is not being evenly distributed across sectors or countries, which creates risks to a smooth and secure transition. In addition, significantly more investment in clean energy is still required for Paris Aligned 1.5C scenarios, with the IEA estimating this should reach c$4.5 trillion by 2030.
Sails on boats!?
At the annual meeting of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) earlier this month countries agreed to cut emissions across the industry by 20% by 2030 and 70% by 2040, compared to 2008 levels, and 100% by or around 2050.
Shipping is a highly polluting industry, responsible for nearly 3% of global emissions and generating around one billion tonnes of greenhouse gases each year. There are few alternatives to the carbon intensive technologies used in shipping today, and the industry has been slow to implement and research emissions cutting technologies.
What could net-zero shipping look like? Electrifying fleets could be a solution for near-shore shipping and smaller boats. But 80% of the sector's emissions come from deep-sea shipping, and there are limits to the distances batteries can power. Hydrogen-based fuels and methanol are likely to make up the largest share in the long-term. Wind-power has also been touted as a solution, with wind propulsion considered one of the most promising energy sources available. If only we had thought of putting sails on ships sooner…
This material is provided by Aegon Asset Management (Aegon AM) as general information and is intended exclusively for institutional and wholesale investors, as well as professional clients (as defined by local laws and regulation) and other Aegon AM stakeholders.
This document is for informational purposes only in connection with the marketing and advertising of products and services, and is not investment research, advice or a recommendation. It shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation to buy any investment nor shall any offer of products or services be made to any person in any jurisdiction where unlawful or unauthorized. Any opinions, estimates, or forecasts expressed are the current views of the author(s) at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. The research taken into account in this document may or may not have been used for or be consistent with all Aegon AM investment strategies. References to securities, asset classes and financial markets are included for illustrative purposes only and should not be relied upon to assist or inform the making of any investment decisions. It has not been prepared in accordance with any legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and may have been acted upon by Aegon AM and Aegon AM staff for their own purposes.
The information contained in this material does not take into account any investor's investment objectives, particular needs, or financial situation. It should not be considered a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such. Nothing in this material constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to any particular investor. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the recipient. Investors should consult their investment professional prior to making an investment decision. Aegon Asset Management is under no obligation, expressed or implied, to update the information contained herein. Neither Aegon Asset Management nor any of its affiliated entities are undertaking to provide impartial investment advice or give advice in a fiduciary capacity forpurposes of any applicable US federal or state law or regulation. By receiving this communication, you agree with the intended purpose described above.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance. All investments contain risk and may lose value. This document contains "forward-looking statements" which are based on Aegon AM's beliefs, as well as on a number of assumptions concerning future events, based on information currently available. These statements involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions which are difficult to predict. Consequently, such statements cannot be guarantees of future performance, and actual outcomes and returns may differ materially from statements set forth herein.
The following Aegon affiliates are collectively referred to herein as Aegon Asset Management: Aegon USA Investment Management, LLC (Aegon AM US), Aegon USA Realty Advisors, LLC (Aegon RA), Aegon Asset Management UK plc (Aegon AM UK), and Aegon Investment Management B.V. (Aegon AM NL).Each of these Aegon Asset Management entities is a wholly owned subsidiary of Aegon N.V. In addition, Aegon Private Fund Management (Shanghai) Co., a partially owned affiliate, may also conduct certain business activities under the Aegon Asset Management brand.
Aegon AM UK is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 144267) and is additionally a registered investment adviser with the United States (US) Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Aegon AM US and Aegon RA are both US SEC registered investment advisers.