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As we head towards the completion of Rishi Sunak’s first 100 days as UK Prime Minister, it is worth reflecting on how sterling credit markets have fared since the end of the disastrous and short-lived Truss Premiership.
The answer is that markets have performed extremely well. Since Liz Truss resigned on 20 October, sterling investment grade bonds have returned 8.8%*, aided by a material recovery in the gilt market (10-year gilt yields are lower by around 60 bps over this period) and an even more impressive compression in investment-grade spreads.
This happened for a combination of reasons – falling inflation; renewed domestic fiscal credibility; lower expectations of gilt supply; an easing of concerns about how much central banks will tighten; and an acknowledgment that sterling investment grade valuations had reached extremes.
So, what might investors expect from investment grade credit over the remainder of the year?
Let’s start with the Bank of England and the likely path of rates this year. Current market expectations are for base rates to peak at close to 4.5% at some point in Q3 (the current rate is 3.5%). While retail figures for the festive period beat the dire expectations, it would be a stretch to describe the UK consumer as being in rude health.
We expect inflation to continue to moderate, particularly aided by lower energy prices. We also believe the Bank of England will ultimately fall short of market expectations around rate rises. We would not be surprised to see the Bank’s prevailing rhetoric err on the hawkish side in the interim, as it wrestles with a desire to regain credibility. Ultimately though, delivering four further hikes before the end of Q3 of 2023 will be a challenge.
Sterling credit spreads reached a wide point of 250 bps in mid-October and have since retraced around 80 bps, reaching an aggregate level not seen since June 2022. While the ‘easy’ money has undoubtedly been made, aggregate (index) spread levels are still at reasonably elevated levels compared to where they have been over the past 10 years. The all-in-yield figures are just as compelling, with a current yield-to-maturity of more than 5%. By way of context, this figure was closer to 2% at the start of 2022 and 1.4% at the end of 2020, albeit we are clearly operating under a different monetary policy regime now.
The global economic backdrop has deteriorated in recent months. The consequence seems to be greater confidence that central banks are now willing to countenance the notion that the worst of inflation may be behind us. This should allow some further - perhaps modest - tightening of credit spreads.
If our assumptions around the likely path of interest rates and credit are broadly correct, then a mid-single-digit total return for the remainder of 2023 would not be a surprise.
* Source: Bloomberg. Markit iBoxx £ Collateralised and Corporates Index. Total return from 20 October 2022 to 17 January 2023 (GBP).
This material is provided by Aegon Asset Management (Aegon AM) as general information and is intended exclusively for institutional and wholesale investors, as well as professional clients (as defined by local laws and regulation) and other Aegon AM stakeholders.
This document is for informational purposes only in connection with the marketing and advertising of products and services, and is not investment research, advice or a recommendation. It shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation to buy any investment nor shall any offer of products or services be made to any person in any jurisdiction where unlawful or unauthorized. Any opinions, estimates, or forecasts expressed are the current views of the author(s) at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. The research taken into account in this document may or may not have been used for or be consistent with all Aegon AM investment strategies. References to securities, asset classes and financial markets are included for illustrative purposes only and should not be relied upon to assist or inform the making of any investment decisions. It has not been prepared in accordance with any legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and may have been acted upon by Aegon AM and Aegon AM staff for their own purposes.
The information contained in this material does not take into account any investor's investment objectives, particular needs, or financial situation. It should not be considered a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such. Nothing in this material constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to any particular investor. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the recipient. Investors should consult their investment professional prior to making an investment decision. Aegon Asset Management is under no obligation, expressed or implied, to update the information contained herein. Neither Aegon Asset Management nor any of its affiliated entities are undertaking to provide impartial investment advice or give advice in a fiduciary capacity forpurposes of any applicable US federal or state law or regulation. By receiving this communication, you agree with the intended purpose described above.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance. All investments contain risk and may lose value. This document contains "forward-looking statements" which are based on Aegon AM's beliefs, as well as on a number of assumptions concerning future events, based on information currently available. These statements involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions which are difficult to predict. Consequently, such statements cannot be guarantees of future performance, and actual outcomes and returns may differ materially from statements set forth herein.
The following Aegon affiliates are collectively referred to herein as Aegon Asset Management: Aegon USA Investment Management, LLC (Aegon AM US), Aegon USA Realty Advisors, LLC (Aegon RA), Aegon Asset Management UK plc (Aegon AM UK), and Aegon Investment Management B.V. (Aegon AM NL).Each of these Aegon Asset Management entities is a wholly owned subsidiary of Aegon N.V. In addition, Aegon Private Fund Management (Shanghai) Co., a partially owned affiliate, may also conduct certain business activities under the Aegon Asset Management brand.
Aegon AM UK is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 144267) and is additionally a registered investment adviser with the United States (US) Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Aegon AM US and Aegon RA are both US SEC registered investment advisers.