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The following information regarding the Company’s funds is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer for shares, products or services and should not be interpreted as an offer to sell, an invitation to acquire an investment, or a solicitation of an offer to buy for any persons who are prohibited from receiving such information under their domiciled local laws.
Aegon Asset Management Investment Company (Ireland) Plc is structured as an umbrella type open-ended investment company with variable capital consisting of a number of different sub-funds (“Funds”) and is authorized in Ireland pursuant to European Communities (Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities) UCITS Regulations and the Central Bank UCITS Regulations (“UCITS Regulations"). Aegon Asset Management Europe ICAV is structured as an umbrella type open-ended investment ICAV with variable capital consisting of Funds and is authorized in Ireland as a UCITS pursuant to the UCITS Regulations.
These Funds are registered in Ireland and are available only to residents of those jurisdictions where allowed by law. Investors that do not meet these requirements will be denied access by the Company.
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Risk notice - Capital risk. The value of investments can go down as well as up and is not guaranteed.
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Risk notice - Capital risk. The value of investments can go down as well as up and is not guaranteed.
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Attention aux fraudeurs se faisant passer pour Aegon Asset Management, d’autres institutions financières et organismes de régulation: Nous avons reçu plusieurs signalements de fraudeurs se faisant passer pour Aegon AM et d’autres entreprises en créant de faux sites web, de fausses publicités et de fausses adresses mail. Pour en savoir plus sur la manière de vous protéger contre ces escroqueries et comment signaler un comportement suspect,veuillez lire ce qui suit.
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You can get the current prospectuses, accounts, important information for investors and fund prices at https://www.fundinfo.com. Please click the accept button and select the county in which you live and identify yourself as a private investor.
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You can get the current prospectuses, accounts, important information for investors and fund prices at https://www.fundinfo.com. Please click the accept button and select the county in which you live and identify yourself as a private investor.
Risk notice - Capital risk. The value of investments can go down as well as up and is not guaranteed.
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Risk notice - Capital risk. The value of investments can go down as well as up and is not guaranteed.
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You can get the current prospectuses, accounts, important information for investors and fund prices at https://www.fundinfo.com. Please click the accept button and select the county in which you live and identify yourself as a private investor.
Risk notice - Capital risk. The value of investments can go down as well as up and is not guaranteed.
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At the conclusion of one of its more anticipated meetings, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) hiked rates by 25 basis points. This was broadly expected, although the recent turmoil in the banking sector had created a high degree of uncertainty as to whether or not the FOMC would proceed with a 25 basis point hike or stand pat.
The FOMC’s only commentary in its statement acknowledging this turmoil was the following: “The US banking system is sound and resilient. Recent developments are likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses and to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects is uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.” Adding later, “The Committee will closely monitor incoming information and assess the implications for monetary policy. The Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time.” Importantly, its dot plot was largely unchanged from December, only indicating a policy rate .125% higher in 2024 versus the previous estimate (see exhibit 1).
Exhibit 1: FOMC dot plot
Source: The Federal Reserve. As of March 22, 2023.
Essentially, the Committee didn’t appear willing to abandon its inflation-fighting regime due to the recent banking turmoil, while simultaneously acknowledging the uncertainty of how much the tightening in lending standards will impact the economy. From this perspective, downshifting from an expected hike of 50 basis points just a few weeks ago to 25 basis points today made a lot of sense.
The market interpreted the FOMC’s statement and subsequent comments made by Chairman Powell in his press conference as relatively dovish. This “dovish hike” led to a significant rally in Treasurys, emboldening expectations the FOMC will “pivot” monetary policy and start cutting interest rates by mid-year. This steepened (i.e., less inverted) the 2-10 curve by about 10-12 basis points post meeting.
We believe these views that the FOMC will cut soon are misplaced, instead expecting the factors driving inflation to be largely unaffected by the recent turmoil. Specifically, we believe the imbalances in the labor market will persist for some time, and the FOMC is unlikely to pivot until this situation is resolved.
In order to achieve this, we believe the unemployment rate will need to rise by at least 1.00%, possibly more. As such, we expect the FOMC will keep rates at or above current levels through the end of this year, potentially well into 2024. Chair Powell said as much during his press conference, but the market shrugged it off. We expect to see similar public comments as Powell’s from Committee members in the coming days, which could pressure front-end rates higher, although it may take upcoming inflation data for the message to finally sink in. While volatility remains high, Treasurys are likely to remain expensive as we also expect a flight to quality.
Unless otherwise noted, the information in this document has been derived from sources believed to be accurate at the time of publication.
This material is provided by Aegon Asset Management (Aegon AM) as general information and is intended exclusively for institutional and wholesale investors, as well as professional clients (as defined by local laws and regulation) and other Aegon AM stakeholders.
This document is for informational purposes only in connection with the marketing and advertising of products and services, and is not investment research, advice or a recommendation.
It shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation to buy any investment nor shall any offer of products or services be made to any person in any jurisdiction where unlawful or unauthorized. Any opinions, estimates, or forecasts expressed are the current views of the author(s) at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. The research taken into account in this document may or may not have been used for or be consistent with all Aegon AM investment strategies. References to securities, asset classes and financial markets are included for illustrative purposes only and should not be relied upon to assist or inform the making of any investment decisions. It has not been prepared in accordance with any legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and may have been acted upon by Aegon AM and Aegon AM staff for their own purposes.
The information contained in this material does not take into account any investor's investment objectives, particular needs, or financial situation. It should not be considered a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such. Nothing in this material constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to any particular investor. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the recipient. Investors should consult their investment professional prior to making an investment decision. Aegon Asset Management is under no obligation, expressed or implied, to update the information contained herein. Neither Aegon Asset Management nor any of its affiliated entities are undertaking to provide impartial investment advice or give advice in a fiduciary capacity for purposes of any applicable US federal or state law or regulation. By receiving this communication, you agree with the intended purpose described above.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance. All investments contain risk and may lose value. This document contains "forward-looking statements" which are based on Aegon AM's beliefs, as well as on a number of assumptions concerning future events, based on information currently available. These statements involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions which are difficult to predict. Consequently, such statements cannot be guarantees of future performance, and actual outcomes and returns may differ materially from statements set forth herein.
The following Aegon affiliates are collectively referred to herein as Aegon Asset Management: Aegon USA Investment Management, LLC (Aegon AM US), Aegon USA Realty Advisors, LLC (Aegon RA), Aegon Asset Management UK plc (Aegon AM UK), and Aegon Investment Management B.V. (Aegon AM NL). Each of these Aegon Asset Management entities is a wholly owned subsidiary of Aegon N.V. In addition, Aegon Private Fund Management (Shanghai) Co., a partially owned affiliate, may also conduct certain business activities under the Aegon Asset Management brand.
Aegon AM UK is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 144267) and is additionally a registered investment adviser with the United States (US) Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Aegon AM US and Aegon RA are both US SEC registered investment advisers. Aegon AM NL is registered with the Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets as a licensed fund management company and on the basis of its fund management license is also authorized to provide individual portfolio management and advisory services in certain jurisdictions. Aegon AM NL has also entered into a participating affiliate arrangement with Aegon AM US. Aegon Private Fund Management (Shanghai) Co., Ltd is regulated by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) and the Asset Management Association of China (AMAC) for Qualified Investors only.
