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Aegon Asset Management Investment Company (Ireland) Plc is structured as an umbrella type open-ended investment company with variable capital consisting of a number of different sub-funds (“Funds”) and is authorized in Ireland pursuant to European Communities (Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities) UCITS Regulations and the Central Bank UCITS Regulations (“UCITS Regulations"). Aegon Asset Management Europe ICAV is structured as an umbrella type open-ended investment ICAV with variable capital consisting of Funds and is authorized in Ireland as a UCITS pursuant to the UCITS Regulations.
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Attention aux fraudeurs se faisant passer pour Aegon Asset Management, d’autres institutions financières et organismes de régulation: Nous avons reçu plusieurs signalements de fraudeurs se faisant passer pour Aegon AM et d’autres entreprises en créant de faux sites web, de fausses publicités et de fausses adresses mail. Pour en savoir plus sur la manière de vous protéger contre ces escroqueries et comment signaler un comportement suspect,veuillez lire ce qui suit.
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This Website and all information contained herein is intended for exclusive use of qualified investors as defined in the Federal Act on Collective Investment Schemes of 23 June 2006 (the “CISA”) and in its implementing ordinance, which have their residence or registered office in Switzerland (the “Qualified Investors”), excluding opt up Qualified investors.
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You can get the current prospectuses, accounts, important information for investors and fund prices at https://www.fundinfo.com. Please click the accept button and select the county in which you live and identify yourself as a private investor.
Risk notice - Capital risk. The value of investments can go down as well as up and is not guaranteed.
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This material does not constitute an offer of products or securities in any country listed above or in any jurisdiction within Latin America and should not be construed as such. Unless otherwise indicated, no regulator or government authority has reviewed the content or the merits of any products and services referenced or implied herein. This material is being made available only to the extent it is in accordance with the restrictions and/or limitations implemented by any applicable laws and regulations. Information is directed at and intended only for institutional investors and their advisers for informational purposes and may not be reproduced in any form. Before acting on any information provided herein, prospective investors should inform themselves of, and observe, all applicable laws, rules and regulations of any relevant jurisdictions and obtain independent advice if required.
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The optimism seen earlier this year on interest rates has not translated into a rebound in transaction volume. We believe buyers and sellers need to come to a better agreement on pricing before we see meaningful improvement.
The sharp rise in interest rates since early 2022 is raising the risk of refinancing for maturing commercial real estate loans. Given where we are in the current cycle, Aegon Asset Management expects that distress will certainly rise as more loans mature and face difficulty refinancing. However, the magnitude of distress may not be as severe as the market fears.
The office sector continues to find minimal demand for space, with vacancies rising another 20 basis points to a new record high of 13.7%.1 Newer vintage offices continue to see positive absorptions, and we believe bifurcations in performance will widen further as leases renew.
Property sector outlook
1Q 2024 Total return
Under Construction as % of Inventory
1Q 24 Vacancy Rate
1Q 23 Vacancy Rate
1Q 24 YoY Rent Growth
1Q 23 YoY Rent Growth
Aegon Real Assets Sector Outlook
Apartment
-6.5%
4.6%
7.8%
6.8%
0.9%
2.9%
Neutral
Industrial
-3.1%
2.1%
6.2%
4.3%
5.6%
9.9%
Neutral
Office
-16.7%
1.2%
13.7%
12.7%
0.7%
0.9%
Most Cautious
Retail
-0.7%
0.4%
4.1%
4.2%
3.1%
4.1%
Neutral
Sources: National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries, CoStar Realty Information Inc., and Aegon Real Assets US. As of March 31, 2024.
Apartment
Apartment sector fundamentals are likely to improve as supply and demand come to a better balance in 2024. During the first quarter of 2024, apartment supply continued to outpace demand. However, demand continued to grow, registering the highest level since late 2021. By the end of 2024, current supply projections show an almost 32% pullback from the record high posted in 2023. With apartment demand on the rise, this could be an opportunity for the sector to stabilize and recover in the latter half of this year.1
Industrial
The industrial sector is still digesting the massive wave of unleased properties delivered over the past year, with the current vacancy rate rising by 50 bps over the past quarter. Despite near-term supply pressure, the vacancy rate remains near the historical norm. In addition, new supply for industrial properties has plummeted since last fall. The current construction pipeline suggests new deliveries are expected to reach a 10-year low in mid-2025.1
Office
The office sector continues to find minimal demand for space, with vacancies rising another 20 bps to a new record high of 13.7%. Newer vintage offices continue to see positive absorptions, and we believe bifurcations in performance will widen further as leases renew.1
Retail
The first quarter of 2024 saw a slight softening of the retail sector, but it remained close to the tightest level ever. With minimal supply-side pressure, demand remained robust, and many retailers struggled to find quality spaces for expansion.1
This material is provided by Aegon Asset Management (Aegon AM) as general information and is intended exclusively for institutional and wholesale investors, as well as professional clients (as defined by local laws and regulation) and other Aegon AM stakeholders.
This document is for informational purposes only in connection with the marketing and advertising of products and services, and is not investment research, advice or a recommendation. It shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation to buy any investment nor shall any offer of products or services be made to any person in any jurisdiction where unlawful or unauthorized. Any opinions, estimates, or forecasts expressed are the current views of the author(s) at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. The research taken into account in this document may or may not have been used for or be consistent with all Aegon Asset Management investment strategies. References to securities, asset classes and financial markets are included for illustrative purposes only and should not be relied upon to assist or inform the making of any investment decisions. It has not been prepared in accordance with any legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and may have been acted upon by Aegon AM and Aegon AM staff for their own purposes.
The information contained in this material does not take into account any investor's investment objectives, particular needs, or financial situation. It should not be considered a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such. Nothing in this material constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to any particular investor. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the recipient. Investors should consult their investment professional prior to making an investment decision. Aegon AM is under no obligation, expressed or implied, to update the information contained herein. Neither Aegon Asset Management nor any of its affiliated entities are undertaking to provide impartial investment advice or give advice in a fiduciary capacity for purposes of any applicable US federal or state law or regulation. By receiving this communication, you agree with the intended purpose described above.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance. All investments contain risk and may lose value. This document contains "forward-looking statements" which are based on Aegon AM's beliefs, as well as on a number of assumptions concerning future events, based on information currently available. These statements involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions which are difficult to predict. Consequently, such statements cannot be guarantees of future performance, and actual outcomes and returns may differ materially from statements set forth herein.
